The Market Bounced. Is It Real, Or Just Relief?

Hey everyone, welcome back. In today's video, I want to walk you through what we covered on our live call with members this morning — the market setup, the key themes we're watching this week, and the specific stocks that are setting up well right now.

This is a really important week, so I want to make this as simple and practical as possible. We've got a bounce in the market today, but the big question is: is this a real recovery, or just an oversold relief rally? That was the main topic on the call.

What we saw today is a bounce after a pretty oversold move. So yes, the market is attempting to recover — but the key point is that this does not automatically mean the trend has changed.

The S&P 500 is bouncing, the Nasdaq is trying to stabilize, and small caps are relatively quiet. But when you look underneath the surface, the message is still mixed.

Three catalysts all hitting close together: the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, major mega-cap earnings, and then more heavyweight earnings on Thursday. A bounce after being oversold is normal. It does not automatically mean the correction is over.

The regular S&P is heavily influenced by the largest companies — Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Broadcom. If those names are weak, the index can look weak even if a lot of other stocks are doing better.

The equal-weight S&P gives a better picture of how the broader market is actually behaving without the mega-cap distortion. What we saw: not terrible, but not enough to make me aggressively bullish just yet. Not clean, broad-based leadership across the board.

VIX — wanted to keep an eye on it to understand whether volatility is likely to stay elevated or calm down into the Fed and earnings.

Oil pulled back, which gave some relief to the market. The 10-year yield dipped and then started ticking back up. Not a clean risk-on environment. Still a mixed picture. The same message: don't confuse a relief rally with a new uptrend.

EDBL — holding a key level and pushing higher. Breakout zone around 7.55. Targets 8.00, 8.20, 8.50. Showing strength after a retracement, trying to reclaim its moving averages. Not a random spike — finding support and building a base.

BIYA — key level around 3.05, with upside levels around 3.10, 3.20, 3.30. Worth watching closely if it can break and hold key levels.

LGHL — key upside level around 2.35.

ENTX — already had a big move. Focus is whether it can hold support after its push.

Not buying strength randomly. Looking for clean technical levels, confirmation, controlled risk.

Memory stocks — especially Micron, SanDisk, the broader memory theme. A lot of excitement because of AI, capex spending, the idea that memory demand is going to explode. The story is attractive.

But the market can get ahead of itself very quickly. When too many people pile into the same narrative too early, it becomes stretched. Sharp volatility, failed breakouts, long consolidation periods.

Stocks like Micron may need to consolidate longer before they can launch properly again. The theme isn't dead. The setup may not be ideal right now. As a trader, that distinction matters a lot.

Dell — strong move → controlled pullback → base → possible continuation. The textbook sequence.

HPE — similar structure. Has had time to digest the move. More stable than stretched, crowded names.

HPQ — one of the strongest setups. Strong liquidity, solid base, cleaner structure. Near the top of the watchlist.

Apple — strong relative strength, pushing toward highs. Showing character change while the rest of the market is still shaky.

Sometimes the leaders are not the most exciting stocks — they're the ones that quietly hold up better than everything else.

Focus on the names that are already doing the work: the big move, the controlled pullback, the base, the potential continuation. That's why Dell, HPE, HPQ, and Apple were more interesting than the crowded narratives.

A lot of traders want to buy the hottest story. The better question: has the stock actually built a proper base? If not, you may just be buying into chop.

Risk management matters more than conviction. Being right is not the goal. Staying in the game is the goal.

Define your risk before entering. Use proper position size. Exit when the setup breaks. Don't marry the trade.

The difference between being an investor and being a trader: long-term investing is one thing. Active trading needs a plan and discipline. You can't apply the same logic to both. Eventually the market will make the decision for you — and you probably won't like it.

Market bouncing, but this still looks like a relief rally, not a clean new trend. Big week ahead with the Fed and mega-cap earnings. Momentum names setting up, but some need more time. More constructive on Dell, HPE, HPQ, Apple. More cautious on the stretched memory trade for now. Risk management is the priority.

Not to chase. Not to get emotional. Not to assume a bounce means everything is fixed. Stay selective, stay patient, and focus on the setups that are actually proving themselves.