!
Educational Recap — Charts For Reference Only
This page summarizes the concepts and process Matt covered on the live call. Charts below show real live price action from TradingView — they are provided for reference, not as our own trade calls. This page shows no entry/stop/target levels of our own; for live setups and alerts, follow Matt directly.
Live Call Recap
Mr M Trades
SESSION RECAP · 12 AUG 2026
The Macro Gate Just Opened. Now The Real Work Begins — In The Bases.
Wednesday's tape arrived with a softer-than-feared CPI print (+0.1% MoM) and an immediate shift in posture: the September rate-hike probability dropped, growth got a green light, and the leadership rotation that was building through the previous weeks put a fresh cohort in charge. Matt opened two new positions live — NBIS on a post-earnings Stage 2 breakout (+454% YoY revenue, positive adj. EBITDA) and a DELL re-entry at the 200-day line after a 57-point volatility day stopped him out. The stage-analysis framework came back into the workflow: every chart now lives in one of four boxes — Stage 1 base, Stage 2 uptrend, Stage 3 top, Stage 4 decline — and the discipline is the same as last month. Process over the candle. Rule over the headline.
Market Stance
POST-CPI · GROWTH GREEN-LIGHT
Framework Of The Day
FOUR-STAGE ANALYSIS
Forward Gate
STAGE 3 TRIGGERS · MU / LRCX
⏱ Forward Catalyst
STAGE 3 WATCH · TOMORROW
--
Days
--
Hrs
--
Min
BASIS FORMATION · MU / LRCX TRIGGERS
Section 1 · Market State
Post-CPI · growth green-light · stage analysis re-applied
Live Call · 12 Aug 2026
CPI
+0.1% MoM · In-Line
ReadSEPT HIKE OFF THE TABLE
QQQ
Tight Consolidation Flag
GateCONTINUATION TRIGGER
SPY
Broad Participation
ReadEQUAL-WEIGHT CONFIRMING
New Position 1
NBIS · Live Entry
PatternPOST-EARNINGS STAGE 2
New Position 2
DELL · Re-Entry
Pattern200-DAY LINE SUPPORT
RMCF
Halt Lesson Learned
RuleCANCEL ORDERS ON HALT
Section 2 · The Stage-Analysis Framework (Re-Applied)
Four stages · one rule · every chart
Every Chart Has Four Stages. Know Which One You're In.
Wednesday's central teaching: the stage-analysis framework is the lens for every chart decision. Stage 1 is base-building — consolidation after a decline (MU has been here since February). Stage 2 is the uptrend — breakout from the base with strong volume (NBIS today, positive adj. EBITDA, +454% YoY revenue). Stage 3 is the top — the stock gets extended from its 50-day line and starts showing distribution. Stage 4 is decline — lower highs, support broken. Use the 50-day line as the tripwire: the further above it the stock trades, the closer to Stage 3 you are. The further below it, the worse the damage.
The discipline is the same as the basis lesson: wait for confirmation, not the first push. LRCX needs a close above the 50-day line and the $335 level to confirm Stage 2. SNDK is the HBF technology catalyst watch. The rule generalizes: stage first, entry second.
Section 3 · Catalyst Board
Gates shaping the week ahead
Catalyst 01
Memory Base Triggers
GateMU > $930 · LRCX > 50-D + $335
Catalyst 02
SNDK · HBF Technology
WatchHIGHER-BANDWIDTH FLASH
Catalyst 03
RIOT · Power-Access Thesis
TriggerMINERS = ELECTRICITY CAPACITY
Today's Verdict
Post-CPI tape is growth-friendly (September hike off the table), but the real work is in the bases. Matt opened two new positions live — NBIS on a post-earnings Stage 2 breakout and DELL on a 200-day-line re-entry — and re-taught the stage-analysis framework with MU as the worked example. The live RMCF halt lesson was free: cancel orders on a halted stock, or get filled on the way down. The rule of the day: every chart has four stages. Know which one you're in before you click buy. Process over the candle. The macro gate opened. The discipline did not change.
The Concepts
The pattern and the lesson behind each name discussed
Charts show live price only — no entry/stop/target of ours
NBIS
The New Position — Post-Earnings Stage 2
New Long
Live on the call: a starter position initiated after a post-earnings Stage 2 breakout. The numbers Matt walked through: revenue +454% YoY, positive adj. EBITDA, strong cash flow. The framework: Stage 1 → Stage 2 transition confirmed, with the first trigger above the prior base high. The first proof point that the post-CPI growth backdrop is being converted into a fresh leader cohort.
DELL
The Re-Entry — 200-Day Line Support
Re-Entry Long
Re-entered live after being stopped out on a 57-point intraday volatility day. Matt's framing: "good setup, wrong position-size for the volatility profile." The new entry uses the 200-day line as explicit support, not as a prediction. The thesis is the same, the sizing is the trade. The lesson generalizes: stop-outs are not thesis failures — they're sizing mismatches.
MU
The Stage-Analysis Worked Example
Trigger Watch
The cleanest Stage 1 → Stage 2 teaching example in the call. Two trigger levels: close above $930 is the first signal that the base is breaking; close above $1040 is the confirmation that the base has fully formed. The 50-day line is the tripwire — the further above it the stock trades, the closer to Stage 3. The rule: wait for the trigger, don't predict it.
LRCX
The Memory Co-Pilot — Needs 50-Day Confirmation
Trigger Watch
The memory cohort is base-building. LRCX needs a decisive close above its 50-day line AND the $335 level to confirm Stage 2. The pattern mirrors MU: first signal then base-complete confirmation. The discipline: the basis has to fully form before the entry.
RMCF
The Live Lesson — Cancel Orders On Halt
Risk Demo
Broke the $171 pivot and halted up. A member got filled at 3.55 on a halt-up, then RMCF halted down — order filled into the decline. Matt walked the rule live: "three time holds in a halt? Cancel every resting order. You don't know what the un-halt print is going to be." The free lesson of the day — a 5-second rule that prevents a real-money loss.
FCX
The Copper Co-Pilot
Flag Forming
Freeport is forming a tight consolidation flag of its own. The pattern: long consolidation → breakout → pullback → continuation. The rule: wait for the breakout, then the pullback, then the trigger.
RTX
The Position Management — Trimmed To Free Capital
Trimmed
Trimmed live to free capital for faster-moving names. The framework: position management is part of the same stage analysis. When a name is digesting in Stage 3 and the cohort is rotating, the right move is to reallocate capital to the new leader — not to double down on the slowing one.
Theme Pulse · Two Narratives
Post-CPI green-light · stage analysis re-applied · memory base building
Narrative A · Post-CPI Growth Backdrop
CPI · +0.1% MoM · in-line
The CPI print landed in-line and softened: September rate hike probability dropped, growth names got a green light. The macro gate just opened. Matt opened two new positions live — NBIS post-earnings Stage 2 and DELL re-entry at the 200-day line — and the leadership rotation that was building through the previous weeks is now in a confirmed cohort. The thesis: process over the candle, stage analysis over the headline. Every chart now lives in one of four boxes, and the entry is the confirmation, not the reclaim.
Evidence: CPI +0.1% MoM · NBIS new position (+454% YoY revenue) · DELL re-entry at 200-day line · RMCF live halt lesson · FCX flag forming.
Narrative B · Memory Base Still Forming
MU · LRCX triggers · Stage 2 not yet confirmed
The memory cohort is still in Stage 1 — base-building, not break-out. MU needs a close above $930 for the first signal and $1040 for the base to be confirmed complete. LRCX needs a decisive close above its 50-day line AND $335. The rule: the basis has to fully form before the entry. The same airworthiness-cleared leader-rotation thesis that pulled NBIS into a new position is also telling us to wait on the memory names. Confirmation is the rule, conviction is not.
Evidence: MU base since February · LRCX needs 50-day close + $335 trigger · SNDK HBF catalyst watch · RIOT power-access thesis still in framing · RTX trimmed to reallocate capital.
Discipline
The most important message from today's call
The priority · The non-negotiable
Every Chart Has Four Stages. Know Which One You're In.
Process over the candle · stage analysis over the headline
"you'll track how far away from the 50 day line the stock is extended…as far as further away it gets above the 50, that is the extension level that you need to watch for and monitor. So it gets too far out, then it gets into the selling phase and you can start seeing distribution." Matt walked MU/SNDK through Stage 2 → Stage 3 in real time, with the 50-day line as the tripwire. The framework: Stage 1 base, Stage 2 uptrend, Stage 3 top, Stage 4 decline. Ask the question first: which stage is this chart in? If you can't answer, you don't have a trade.
The RMCF live-halt lesson was the free risk-management piece: "three time holds in a halt? Cancel every resting order. You don't know what the un-halt print is going to be." A member got filled at 3.55 on a halt-up, then RMCF halted down — order filled into the decline. The 5-second rule that prevents a real-money loss.
And the DELL re-entry generalizes: stop-outs are not thesis failures — they're sizing mismatches. The thesis is the same, the sizing is the trade. Process over the candle. The macro gate opened. The discipline did not change.
Pre-Trade Checklist
Five checks. Every time. No exceptions.
Saved on this device
Risk defined? Stop loss is set before the entry. The number is written down.
Position sized? Size matches the stop. The trade can be wrong without damaging the account.
Key level identified? The trigger (breakout, reclaim, support hold) is clear and unambiguous.
Confirmation present? Setup isn't chasing. Structure is doing the work — base, reclaim, trigger.
Thesis documented? Why this trade, why now, what proves it right, what proves it wrong. One line each.
Exit plan ready? Targets are listed in order. Invalidation is named. Both are written before entry.
Why this matters: A great setup with bad sizing becomes a great loss. A mediocre setup with perfect sizing becomes a small win. The size is the trade — and that math is yours to do, on your own numbers, in your own broker.
Saved